Monday, May 18, 2009

Don't Shoot the Messenger

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www.FrontPorchColumbus Dot Com

Vaus made a comment in the comments about the box office $$ that Public Enemies might take in. He was looking for prognostications and found a few which I believe are way way low. However I do agree that Public Enemies will not be the highest grossing movie on the summer.

WHAT were we talking about last year anyway. Remember when people were saying PE was going to be the only major release because of the strike. It's not that I'm surprised we were SO wrong but I'm surprised no one corrected our boasting. Were we on crack?

So Vaus took IMDB/BoxOfficeMojo, ComingSoon, IndieWire, FilmSchoolRejects, and MovieRetriever estimates and put them all together. He/she does cover his/her ass by saying "All predictions were made prior to start of May when no-one had seen all the films. While most writers/predictors want to see Public Enemies, they know that summer movie time is for families and students"

Here is the list and I'll have my view after.

1.Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ;$345m
2.Harry Potter and the half blood prince ; $310m
3.Star Trek ; $229m
4.Terminator Salvation ; $222m
5.Up ; $220m
6.Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs ; $206m
7.Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian ; $204m
8.X-men Origins: Wolverine ; $204m
9.Angels & Demons ; $172m
10.GI Joe: Rise of the Cobra ; $133m
11.Bruno ; $118m
12.Public Enemies ; $115m
13.Funny People; $111m

OK - Public Enemies 115m is absurd. Seriously - that is just poopy talk. More on that later.

Star Trek will hit +250m as it's second weekend only had a 43% drop in sales which is remarkably low and by Tuesday will pass Wolverine. Wolfie should end up in the 180m area, not the 204m as mentioned above.

This year has been a steller year for movies as seven have hit the $140m mark compared to TWO last year.

Angels & Demons premiered this last weekend and had a good showing but nothing amazing, below most estimates actually. Demons has the lowest pre-Memorial weekend opening since 2000. Blame Star Trek which actually out drew Demons on Saturday. 52% of the audience was female for Demons. Star Trek is getting a huge word-of-mouth buzz and getting new people to see it.

REPORT from a worker buddy who saw Demons this weekend - he had just read the book and for him, thumbs down. It was loosely based on the book. The water, air, fire stuff was there but he was underwhelmed. His wife who did not read the book liked it. I guess they had to change somethings (he called it updating) that he did not appreciate.

The theater was about 3/4 full. However - there was a Public Enemies trailer which created a buzz and had people around him saying "wow, that is looking awesome".

Next weekend Terminator: Salvation and Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian both kick off the long Memorial Day holiday session.

As for Public Enemies - it will be going against Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, the third and final Ice Age movie. This will get kids and parents attention but Public Enemies will have the adults attention. So perhaps PE will not win the weekend outright - who knows.

I believe PE will bow to Harry Potter but with all the Sci Fi movies coming out will the pubic be getting a little overwhelmed and need a rest from graphics and CGI? I think it will.

Transformers comes out June 24th which is suppose to be MUCH better then the first and coming up will be Terminator and . . . Night at the Museum another kids flick??

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Here is the results SO far in 2009

1 Monsters vs. Aliens 190.6
2 Fast & Furious 152.9
3 X-Men Origins: Wolverine 151.1
4 Gran Torino (2008 Ltd) 147.7 .
5 Star Trek 147.6
6 Paul Blart: Mall Cop 145.8
7 Taken 144.5
8 Watchmen 107.4
9 He's Just Not That Into You 93.9
10 Madea Goes to Jail 90.5

I just hope Public Enemies can beat Paul Blart: Mall Cop. Pretty high standards!
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We are going to have a little meeting about the Public Enemies Premier Party at West James Gallery at 5:00 today - just to see where we are. I'm going to push for a small change. I believe a 9:00 movie time is too late for many people on a work night. I would rather have a 7:30 movie and the Party AFTER the movie.

Look at it this way. "Party Before" no one will have anything to talk about. We will watch the movie and all go home to bed as it will be midnight.

7:30 movie we can all go to the AFTER movie Party, eat, have a drink and talk about what we saw. Comments? Thoughts?
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Had some damage with the 36 degrees we hit Saturday night. Some Coleus seem a little stressed and shriveled. Hope the babies come back.

I looks like my Asters FINALLY started to come alive. They are tiny little things. Will they grow fast enough??

Speaking of plants. Why is it people will dump chemicals on their lawns to kill all of the dandelions and THEN, they will plant little yellow flowers that look EXACTLY like little yellow dandelions in the front yard???

Mine are all planted naturally. My Jolly Bee Geraniums are all dead. No sign of life. I also hate my dorky look Flaming Bush.

My three year old clay garden is looking fantastic!! WOW. It's going to be awesome. You gardeners were right. Year 3 is going to be sweet. Year 2 in the lasagna garden is starting slowly. Some plants are doing great, some are just starting and some I'm not sure if they are weeds or plants.

Have a great day.
sigh!

14 comments:

  1. Well, I know with that list of movies, PE is the only one that I am interested in seeing. None of the others are appealing to me. But that is my personal take on it.

    I like the idea of a 7:30 viewing with an after party--that would be awesome! I can't attend your meeting, but I know that we want to be a part of the event.

    Which reminds me about 4th of July--Mike would like to be in the parade. Is there a group of extras? If not, should he contact some? If you want to e-mail him it is malioto@charter.net

    Have a great day!

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  2. I think that the 7:30 showing with the party after sounds like a better idea. I am going to try to make it to the meeting tonight. I would love to help make this possible!

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  3. I'm sure PE will do better than expected, but with the Potter film coming out 2 weeks after PE..there will be some tough competition.

    As far as Angels and Demons go.. I loved the book, so of course I'll be seeing the movie this week. Movies are never exactly like the book anyway. However, it's still interesting to see those characters come to life.

    Have a great Monday everyone!

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  4. Saw Star Trek last night and LOVED it!!!! Just to see how far things have come since I started watching it in the 70's- WOW!!! Amazing! it still gives me a thrill and hope that someday things will have advanced that far...
    Party afterward...hmmmmm...have to think on that one....I am NOT a night person but there would be more to talk about....see you at 5 tonight!

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  5. HBO - Firsty Look at PE

    An inside look at this retro crime drama about the federal effort to stop the organized crime wave led by John Dillinger. Johnny Depp and Christian Bale star.

    http://tinyurl.com/o5dl63

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  6. Oh, come on PE HAS to do better than Wolverine, Fast and the Furious---they sTuNk so bad! There is a lot of good competition for PE this summer. Should be interesting to see how it does.

    Kim, I saw Star Trek too and thought it was the best ST movie so far-funny as well. : )

    What time is the preview scheduled at Eastgate on the 30th?

    Have a great week all!

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  7. No preview at East Gate - only The Point!

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  9. I'm all for an earlier showing with party after too. I think the party would be MUCH more fun with us being able to talk about what we had just seen instead of what we THOUGHT we would see.
    I don't know about the box office. I really think with the economy the way it is people want to go to a movie to escape and have fun. The darker summer movies probably won't do as well as they would have just a year ago and the children/comedy's are probably going to do better than they would have last year. JMHO.

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  10. Ok. Obviously I hope PE beats Paul Blart - Mall Cop. But it was actually a really good movie. Don't knock on it too bad. I love Kevin James!

    I also agreee that an earlier show time would be best. Especially on a work night! I would think 7pm would be best... but that's just me. I probably won't even be able to go anyway with the baby and everything :P

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  11. History tends to show this: the bigger the flick is at the box office, the less likely it will be championed for Oscar consideration... at least insofar as the marquee awards (acting, direction, film.) Whereas-- if it's good, and does at least reasonably well "for a drama in summer", critics will hype it to the heavens come Dec./Jan.

    There are of course exceptions ("The Return of the King")-- but.

    Just for me personally-- I'd dig it if it won critical acclaim and became a film for the ages, even if "Paul Blart" ends up making more dough at the box office.

    says the happy cranky contrarian.

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  12. Mary, you the "happy cranky contrarian"??? NEVER...or maybe ..ALWAYS!!!

    I agree with the earlier showing and party...or partay later. 5 bells and all.

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  13. Revealing my number nerdiness, this is not the first time I have looked at summer box office predictions. I find it most interesting when they get it wrong. Sometimes they are wrong because the film is not what was expected. Last year the average prediction for Speed Racer was $160m but in reality it made $43m. Sometimes it is about the audience. Internet predictions regularly underestimate movies that women like. There were no predictions I saw last year that even listed Mamma Mia which made $141m.
    Often the summer movies are sequels and the prediction is based on the previous film which doesn't necessarily apply. Last year's average predictions had Indiana Jones and Chronicles of Nania both ahead of The Dark Knight.
    The range of predictions that went into the average for Public Enemies is from $100m to $137m.
    The Hollywood Stock Exchange (an internet game) has Public Enemies at $138 and 11th place so that represents another piece of collective wisdom.
    Personally, I expect that it will be in the top 10 after a couple of those listed don't make their expectations. But since I am reading this blog, I am hardly unbiased.

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  14. Don't Shoot the Messenger....


    ___________________
    Julie
    "BEST PRICE for the BEST ENTERTAINMENT"

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