Thursday, November 19, 2015

The door has opened to winter

I was called out before City Council by the Mayor over a prediction last year about a powerful storm which never materialized.  YUP - got that one wrong.  And sort of missed one a few weeks ago where the wind never materialized HERE but it did south west of Madison.

However - I did predict this mess we just got through a week ahead of time.  Still, weather prediction has gotten much much better in the last couple years, people only remember when the talking heads (and me) are wrong and that actually influences the weather forecasters.  

I was also asked when the first accumulating snow would occur and while I knew Saturday was a good chance I wasn't going to put that out there because this thing coming at us was still pretty fuzzy.

NOW though it's taking shape.

We have a pretty strong jet stream right above us and "warm" moist air moving north  and cold dry air north of us.  This is a small nasty system.  It's a little eddy of energy.  Fast moving and very potent and it's carving out a section of the US as it moves towards us.  HOWEVER - the European model has thrown a wrench into the works saying this storm will have a negative tilt and will dump a large quantity of it's snow before it gets to us!  The moist air is not AS moist as we assumed.

SO - at one point the word EIGHT inches which was in the conversation (well for a few hours at least) is waning and now it looks like things are getting more conservative.  Maybe 1-3 inch.  I tend to look at which way the forecasters are trending and at the moment the trend is less and less.

Can't get away from the cold though.  Sunday, sunny and a high of 27 low of 16. Then warming to 40 and Thanksgiving rain (sorry, a month ago I predicted a thunderstorm but it's only rain :-)

The holiday parade will be lower 40s with spitting rain. NOT like last year with freezing rain.

BTW - It's 8:30 and the average sustained wind speed is 25mph!! NOT a good day for disc golf.

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October was the warmest October in 136 years of record keeping.

"Reclining Nude” (don't google that at work) by Amedeo Modigliani, a painting, was sold for 170 million dollars and paid for with an American Express Card!  YIKES, seriously?  I'm not sure I have a limit that high!  That is about 422 million Express Points, or, 28 million frequent flier miles!

The odds for the Packers to make the playoffs has taken a hit and is now down to 83% and only 3.7% to win the Superbowl.

OH  - weather geeks - I'm reading a fantastic book called "Roar of the Heavens" about Hurricane Camille in 1969.  I was on a vacation to New York New York with my neighbors and was so pissed I was missing what many believe was a once in 10,000 year event.

What happened in Virginia is amazing and one study says it was so rare that you need to go beyond human history to see this again.  It rained so hard birds drowned in trees with the lack of oxygen.  NOAA suggest that the "maximum rain rate that is theoretically possible" occurred.

I read the preface and had chills.  

Speaking of terrorists - I hear a lot of people talking about sending an army to get the bad guys . . do people understand what terrorists are?  They actually don't wear uniforms you know.

All you hear about on TV now is terrorists stuff which is spreading fear - YET - we live in the safest period of our lives (well except for the 25,000 gun deaths per year in America).  One cool thing happening is that while the US will not speak to Russia and Russia will not speak to the US, we will BOTH speak to France and work with them.

OH - probably a bad time to show this photo I captured yesterday - I put it on facebook and immediately caught flak about Whitewater and Monica and cover ups by the Left (no mention of Iran Contra cover ups by the Right though).

Bill was outside The Madison Club.

 

   Hey - I would take Trumps photo if I was next to him, OR Carson's if I could wake him up!

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had a 4:15 Council session last Tuesday.  Drug sniffing dogs took up a BIG portion of that and it's the newest debate we are grappling with. The question is - does Columbus really need a drug sniffing dog?  There are many things to think about.  Cost, effectiveness, need among other things.

OK - gotta run.  Brew day