Thursday, December 14, 2017

Badugi

During my poker playing days which actually started me blogging, one thing Elwood and I would do was find situations where it was easier to win.

Winning poker was not a problem as we were raking in the money.  I actually took a year off playing because I started to ignore my family . . . YET, I was making $200 a week play $2 poker (4 tables at once for 20 hours a week).  I was getting addicted to winning low stakes poker.

ANYWAY - we would look for games and websites from countries where the players were just learning.  We also noticed that players in the UK played a different style of game. Americans are very analytical going by numbers and percentages while in the UK players would just bludgeon there poker games with aggressive bluffing.

SO - when an Asian game called Badugi started showing up and there were no books or basic strategy to be found - it seemed perfect.  All we had to do was figure out basic strategy since nobody knew what it was we thought this would be yet another way to make money.

Badugi?  Awesome fun game and we even played it on our bowling team when I used to bowl (I had a 299 once - overcooked that last ball, went Brooklyn and and left a pin).  Maybe I'll introduce it in golf next year.

It's like draw poker - you are dealt 4 cards and there is a blind and a small blind like in Hold'm.  There are 3 rounds of betting with 2 rounds of drawing and discarding.

The goal in Badugi is to have a four-card low hand with four different suits, and no pairs. The best possible starting hand therefore is 4-3-2-A (with each card a different suit).

Hands are ranked by the lowest highest card and Aces are always low and straights are ignored. A player with 9-8-4-3 of different suits will lose to a player holding 8-7-3-2 (an ‘Eight Badugi’) of different suits. 6-5-4-A (a ‘Six-Five Badugi’) would lose to a 6-4-3-2 (a ‘Six-Four Badugi’). If the top card is a tie the next card is looked at.

The trick is to have 4 different suits with your 4 cards. If nobody has 4 suits then it goes to the best (or worst actually) 3 card hand.

Try it for fun some night.  It's an awesome little game that died when the NFL and Republicans froze everybody assets overseas.  If you want to piss off people, don't piss off poker players.  There were 8 Republican sponsors for the bill that froze our assets for 6 months overseas and they tried to make online poker illegal by not allowing gambling money into our banking system. The NFL is still around but all 8 sponsors lost their next elections.  Bernie Sanders was the head of the American Poker Alliance.

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Football Outsiders says the Packers, with A A Ron R Dogers', have a 1.9% chance of making it to the Conference Championship and a 0.3% chance to win the Super Bowl

The Eagles with Foles have a 56% chance and 14.3% chance to win the SuperBowl right behind Pittsburgh.

The chance for a Keystoned Bowl (Pitts / Philly) is 10.7%

The chance for a rematch of SuperBowl XLV (Pitts / GB) is 0.2%.

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Side Note - Trump, this morning is at his lowest approval rating ever when you combine all 100 polls into an average. Beating his August 29th rating.  He is at 36.7%

Think one side is fired up?  I saw a graph of the last 20 elections cycles and how many people on each side are running for an office across the country.  By an astronomical number the left is in a feeding frenzy with candidates.   For instance - for the first time EVER, Texas will have at least two candidates in every single house seat. 

I wish I could find that graph but looking at the last 20 elections lets say the average number of liberal candidates for those 20 elections Nationwide was let's say . . 8 and the number of conservative candidates the average was 7.   For the NEXT election the number of liberal candidates is close to 90 (no, really it's THAT crazy) and the Conservative candidates are still 7.

Who is fired up?

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Interest rates ticked up yesterday for the 3rd time. Credit cards, mortgages and loans will all soon go up (if that have not already).

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Ever hear of Outreach calling?  They are a telemarketing group that asks for money to help veterans. They keep 90% of the money they collect.  OH - they are a Republican SuperPAC fund raising company that funnels money to support their tea party agenda, NOT to help veterans.

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The Russian economic deficit has doubled in  the last year - Trump wants to mirror Russia I think.

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WEATHER - weekend is look good.  36 Saturday and some sun. In fact starting Saturday we will be in the upper 30s and MAYBE even a low 40 by next Thursday and then the bottom drops up for NEXT weekend.  No snow for a while and lost of sun with a few clouds.







   


Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Charles Barkley dunks Roy Moore.

So while everybody is complaining about their property taxes going up (we went up $300 but are still over $1000 below 5 year ago) something happened down south that drew my attention.

We all know by now that while Trump is somehow claiming victory (no he really is) Roy Moore lost.  I'm giving Charles Barkley a big high five as I believe he was a huge deciding factor.  When The Round Mound of Rebound came out and told his fellow black community members to  "Stop looking like idiots" it had to help as they came out in huge numbers even with the voter suppression.

DJ and I laughed when we saw the two campaign headquarters.  Jones had younger people of all colors celebrating and the Moore camp was literally nothing but old white people sitting glumly.

So Trump has now backed 3 candidates in 3 months and has lost every one. But the BIG loser besides Moore is Steve Bannon.  Bannon lost this for the Republicans, clear and simple. He and Trump were the ONLY ones that wanted Moore to win.

Yesterday I was looking at Twitter because Strat-o-matic is putting out fielding ratings for next year (more on this later) and I saw Chuck Todd tweet something interesting in the afternoon.

He said if the Alabama race was an NFL football game Moore would be a -3 point favorite only because he has home field advantage. This means that Jones would be a +3 underdog and the SMART money would be all over Jones.  This was my first indication that Jones actually had a chance although I was still pessimistic.

ANYWAY - America did not change when Trump was elected.  America was exposed but not fundamentally changed.

OH - last night DJ and I decided we needed to celebrate and open a beer.  Gus decided to celebrate by going to the cat box and munching on some cat poop.  We all have our own way of celebrating  I guess.

OH2 - remember the seat Jones won was held by Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

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Trumps Department of Labor is trying to pass a bill that will allow restaurants to take wait staff tips and redistribute them to the non-wait staff. This will allow restaurants to take the tips from servers and redistribute them among un-tipped staff such as dishwashers. But it doesn’t require that those tips be redistributed among un-tipped staff — so legally, as long as the tipped employees are paid minimum wage, the restaurants can just keep the confiscated money.

Seems fair doesn't it.  Is this anti-trickle down?

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People, even I, do not understand fully what it's like to be poor.  Elwood has had a track phone with limited minutes for the last decade. His sister would up his minutes every month.  I think he would he 1 hour of talk time.

Big deal right?  Well, we put him on OUR family plan and purchased him a new flip phone. WELL, his elation is significant.  I never realize how much he would appreciate unlimited minutes.

He said he has friends he can finally talk too because he is not worried about minutes.  How can you have a nice conversation knowing that every minute of talking is taking away future minutes you might REALLY need.

Small things like pens.  He asked if I had any extra pens.  REALLY?  I have BOXES of pens.  But the poor literally have no money to buy a pen and they don't go banks for a free pen or dentists offices for free pens.  All the places with free pens, poor people do not go too.

It's funny and sad when I hear "rich" people like you and me say "just take a bus and get an ID" when buses cost money. If you can't justify buying a pen because it takes away from food money . . . . . think how expensive an extra bus ride is

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We have heard of the fatbergs that are crippling the water distribution systems in the UK.  We have that problem in Columbus which is costing the city a pretty penny but the REAL problem is baby wipes.

93% of the clogs are from baby wipes  - PLEASE PLEASE - do not flush ANYTHING down the toilet that is not poop or toilet paper.

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So some fielding ratings came out and Ryan Braun is listed as a 3e4 in the outfield (LF I presume) which is average range and good glove.  Errors are really meaningless in the whole scope of things in fielding as range factor is much more important.  You can make 1 error a year if you never get to a ball.  So Braun being average (one of his best ratings ever) is a good thing.  Now where will they play him next year.

Remember Jean Segura former Brewer SS?   He is rated as a 4e27 which is literally one of the worst fielding SS's in the Majors.

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Seems our DIRECT TV was a Genie issue.  Our mini Genies were upgraded but the software in them did not really talk to the software in the old Genie (the main box), so they gave us a new main box.

Seems DIRECT TV is having huge issues with ATT especially their help centers.

The sad thing is we lost everything on the DVR including 31 episodes of Outlander.  DIRECT TV wants to have everything in the DVR on the cloud but the FCC does not allow it.

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I've been trying to download the Uber app just so I have it. Seems Columbus has two Uber drivers and I was curious. 

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Everyone hates Prince Charles but knowing the whole story I feel a little sad for him.  He never really wanted to merry Princess Diana. His one true love has always been Camilla Parker Bowles
 but he was not allowed to marry her because of rules and the issues of Prince Edward VIII who abdicated.  The royal family did not want ANOTHER abdication and disallowed any marriage.

So after years and years of looking and with the brutal murder of his best friend Louis Francis Albert Victor Nicholas Mountbatten, 1st Earl Mountbatten of Burma and the rest of his family by the IRA he was sort of lost and floundering.

FINALLY he HAD to merry SOMEBODY and Diana stumbled into his life.  Diana was very very immature and star struck and compassionate to his depression and they sort of hit it off.  He never really loved her but was sort of forced to merry.

Long story short and less boring - it was FUBR on all sides. He was put in a horrible situation by the Royal Family but it was not totally the Royal Family's fault.



 

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Nobody ever got fired for buying an IBM (as pertained to sports) & Mahlon Mitchell

In the Packer game there are 2 minutes and 39 seconds left in the game.  Cleveland has the ball on their 37 yard line and it's 3rd and 4 and they are up by 7.   At that moment, Cleveland has a 96% chance to win their first game of the year.

Not gonna happen!

Davante Adams becomes the 4th player in NFL history to score the game tying TD to go into overtime and the game winning TD in overtime.  The last time a player did this?

Last year in the Superbowl, James White.

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FUN FACT - in the first 13 weeks of the NFL.  When a team has 3rd and 10+ and the QB throws a pass LONGER then 10 yards, that pass is converted into a first down 42% of the time.

In that same scenario, 3rd and 10 and the QB throws a pass shorter then 10 yards, it is converted into a first down 12% of the time.  DON'T DO THAT!

FUN FACT - NEVER PUNT - well, not literally never.

Look at the actual statistics.

You have the ball on your 5 yard line - you go for it and miss. The other team gets the ball on the 5 and will score 96% of the time.  IF YOU PUNT - the other team gets the ball on the 40 yard line and will score 77% of the time.   A 15% difference - however, that is if you did not get your 1st down.  Punting you have ZERO chance of scoring but if you go for it you have basically a 50% chance of making that 1st down.  Of course if it's 4th and 40 that 50% chance goes downhill but you get the idea.

Bear with me a second - In the awesome Netflix series "Halt and Catch Fire" about the creation of the first laptop by the competitors of IBM.  the line "Nobody ever got fired for buying an IBM" is spoken when they are arguing why people are not buying THEIR computer.

Same with major sports coaches and managers.  Nobody ever got fired for NOT punting, or nobody ever got fired for NOT bunting (weird, same word, different first letter).

NFL and MLB strategy is generations behind where the game is now. BUT - managers and coaches are so afraid of being different there’s no development, no evolution of the game.

Look at the issues in baseball where you now have shifts.  I literally heard MLB announcers state that shifts should be illegal because it hurts the game.  They said sabrmetrics and analytics should not be part of baseball. Science and baseball should not intermingle.

WHAT? Seriously?  are they from Alabama?   

Another strategy that statistically is awesome.  You should ALWAYS onside kick. ALWAYS (unless you are the NE Patriots). There have been high schools and one collage team that onside kicked 100% of the time and never ever punted.  They had great success.

I'm not sold on the onside kick thing as the numbers do not seem to add up.  Maybe it's difference in NCAAF.  However - the average kickoff in the NFL ends up at the 21 yard line (Packers 22.9).  The average onside kick ends up at the 47 yard line, however you get the ball back 20% of the time.

SO - 20% of the time you get the ball on your opponents 47 yard line with a great chance of scoring and 80% of the time you lose 26 yards but your opponents have only a 6% greater chance of scoring with those extra yards.

Worth the risk?

*A lot of these numbers came from advancedfootballanalytics.com     

OH OH  - Speaking of onside kicks.  Did you see The Patriots onside kick last night? WORST EVER (well, besides the Packers)  I guess they never tried one before.

https://youtu.be/8eWp-MGA0cw

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The next liberal dude review from my political professor buddy.

Mahlon Mitchell – Labor leader Milwaukee Firefighters. He was the losing VP nominee in the recall election and performed satisfactorily. Unlike Lt.G. Rebecca Kleefisch, who believes gay men want to marry clocks and tables.

If he can excite (Mitchell is black) Milwaukee blacks to vote it would be important. The falloff of black Democrats in Milwaukee is in large part why Trump carried the state and why Walker has held steady since winning the Governor Chair. How much of the fall out was opting out versus obstructed by the Voter ID Law out? Worth keeping an eye on Mitchell, I voted for him in the past as well he is acceptable at the moment.

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The Crown.  I've always been sort of a Monarchy enthusiast so watching The Crown is a must.  There is another show on Netflix that covers The House of Windsor and WHO KNEW !  their was not one drop of English blood in The House of Windsor when they changed their name from Gotha.

They were 100% German and changed their name to Windsor (the name of the castle they lived in)  when the Germans bombed London in WWI.

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You know,  if Roy Moore wins today it hurts Republicans because this child thing will not go away.  In Wisconsin a House Rep has submitted new rules that up the age of Pages and Interns so Moore will not have access to children. 

Our Government protecting children from our government.

Speaking of that vote.  Most polls show Moore leading by 1 to 5 points . . .EXCEPT the Fox News poll which has Jones leading by 10 points.  It's almost like that make things up.

Trump ratings?  2nd lowest ever as of this morning taking 100 polls and averaging them.  August 25 and 26 his approval rating dropped to 36.8%. This morning he is at 37.0%.  ODDLY Fox News has not run a Presidential poll since early October.

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France is creating a 30 gigawatt solar farm that will cost 25 billion euro and create tens of thousands of jobs.  Meanwhile in the US we canceling all of the incentives for solar and wind farms so that 3 or 400 coal miners can head back underground to save America.  LITERALLY sticking our heads into the sand to Make America Great Again. 

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Ever watch Ryan ToysReview on Youtube?  He's a 6 year old that opens packages, plays with the toys and then reviews that toy.  From June 2016 to June 2017 he made $11 million from Youtube - America is already great.  Well, until Net Neutrality happens.

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WEATHER

A small "warming" trend is in our future. but these little clippers keep coming.

What is happening is that the jet stream west of Seattle keeps diving south and small little eddies keep breaking off and spinning their way towards Wisconsin.  Another one will hit us tomorrow with another 1-2 inches of snow.

I'm not as optimistic as the talking heads on TV about this weekend and believe it will be colder then they are telling us but we should be in the upper 20s and upper 30s by Monday