Thursday, November 5, 2015

Thursday stuff that is on my mind

So a while ago I said JEB! was the winner in the GOP race without a doubt, 100% guaranteed.

I was wrong.

The problem is that the GOP is in so much in turmoil no one really has a clue on what REAL candidate will win.  Trump and Carson have zero chance when the REAL votes are being cast, they are entertainers.

The very best predictor on who will win their sides primary is endorsements from other politicians and is called the invisible primary which is voted on by party elites. Oh you may think you are voting but not really.  The party elites are in charge.

Over the last 30 or 40 years the elites reach a consensus and the rank and file voters follow. Works like clockwork.

WELL - a few months ago JEB! was getting all the early votes but for the last couple months the party elites (at least on the GOP side) have raised their hands and have not really had a clue what to do.  It's chaos.

The votes are like this - 10 points for governors, 5 points for U.S. senators and 1 point for U.S. representatives.  JEB! was winning with 37 but that has dried up.  The only candidate who has gotten ANY endorsements in the last 2 weeks is Marco Rubio and he is still in 4th place with 18 points (getting 12 points recently).

So it's still up in the air for the GOP.

For the Democrats - Clinton as 391 votes and in 2nd place is Bernie with 2. Oh it's not fool proof. At this point in 2008 Clinton had a small lead over Obama, something like 40 to 20.

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In other news!

Here are the roads we are going to fix in 2016.  At the moment the theory is most of them will be done at about the same time starting early May.



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The Sun Prairie Senior Center is having their 5th annual beer fest featuring 60 beers and wine and cheese tasting.  I'll have my East Indian Porter on tap for the event



Tickets are only $25 in advance, $30 at the door and can be purchased on line or in person at the Colonial Club, 301 Blankenheim Lane in Sun Prairie or at Cannery Wine & Spirits at 240 E. Main St.

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Weather - good things coming after a small break in the 20+ above average days.  There is a little kicker up dare in British Columbia that has unattached itself from the arctic and with so much humidity in the air we COULD see some hail tonight and thunderstorms could erupt later tonight. COULD be the last of the season but . . . .we have more warmth coming after NEXT week. when we get 10-15 above average for Thanksgiving.

The weekend looks cool (like 3 or 4 above average) and sunny!

OK - gotta run

cheers