Two different blogs here
Kid #1 Caydence - Everybody knows Caydence my daughters "first" kid was born with Down Syndrome and is now in 7th grade. She LOVES basketball and yea - sort of short for the sport but LOVES it.
She is on the 7th grade basketball team and LOVES it. She had her first game last night that she has been talking about for months.
WELL - something nobody thought about - NOISE - it was all good but the crowd cheering and the constant BUZZER really rattled her to the bone.
I am SO SO proud of her as she made it to half time but the plug had to be pulled for her sanity. "We" were losing 11-2 at the half and that was it for her. Just could not handle the noise
She was a little depressed at herself but will move forward to the next game where she might have those sound canceling headphones on.
I hope people know that kids with Down Syndrome KNOW they are different and just want to fit in.
For me she is a REAL miracle angel. I'm not religious one iota but Caydance? A true miracle. I say this as her dad was just a dude with no real skill besides a fix-it guy (which is a skill in itself). When Caydence was born he had to learn to play doctor to keep her healthy. It clicked!!
NOW? a VERY . . . VERY . . . highly paid traveling ER nurse (a ridiculous amount LOL)
THEN - there is Sydney who is in 5th grade. We thought Syd had autism, never spoke, kept to herself. WELL - yea - she is on the spectrum but now reads 2 levels above her grade. For instance - a few years ago (3rd grade) she watched all the videos on Youtube on Chemical Engineering and wanted to be a chemical engineer for NASA .
Syd has no
real physical talent - not a sportsperson - a reader of all books large and small. HOWEVER - we found out she LOVES archery and has joined the Columbus schools archery team - WHO KNEW - She is probably calculating the current barometric pressure and humidity and how it will affect the flight of the arrow.
and then there is my brothers son Chris! Awesome awesome guy - wants to go on Survivor - BUT FIRST - he has to start his new job as an Adventure Tourist Tour Guide in Antarctica. The kind where the adventurers pay $20,000 each for the adventure and Chris is their guide.
We just got a WhatsApp from him saying he made it to Chile and is in quarantine for 10 days before start the journey to Antarctica.
This has been in the works for a few years and then Covid hit - he is trained in Rescue Operations and has been around the world being captured by drug lords in Panama? when he was helping his instructure who got LITERALLY lost in the jungle. Seems him and two students were on a search mission, found a river and was captured by a drug lord operation.
The guy talked his way out if that situation. He was hired to be on call for rescuing adventurists but that went away with Covid.
SO - the kids are alright it seems
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Blog #2
I wrote a blog a week ago talking about a new system I worked on for a couple weeks which looked promising. I THINK I got trigger finger from overuse - a LOT of data input!
In the spreadsheets I input data for EVERY single game in the NBA and NHL the moneyline if the team won and -100 if they lost. I took balderdashs advice and ignored point spreads completely. 100% moneyline in the NBA and Moneyline in the NHL plus the Puckline (win by more then one or not lose by more then one)
What I found doing this manually was a little surprising and goes against common schools of thought in wagering.
So in a nutshell for the NBA - I look at a game - Team "A" is predicted to WIN 52% of the time - I look at the moneyline and if it loses it gets -100 units a loss. If it wins it gets what the the moneyline would have won, let's say +0.76 units And so forth for EVERY game
For instance - below. Team A is predicted to win 51% (purple 51) of the time. The moneyline was -128 so the team won and I put in 78 (which if you bet $1 you would win 78 cents) the next game it lose so I put in -100 (not 110 as I bet the other way I lose a straight 100 - I don't bet $100 - just an easy way to keep track). Notice sometimes I win more than 100 as the linemakes believe it was a underdog)
And here it gets interesting. After 500 games the 51% to 58% were winning money no matter what the line was. Just that one area had a ROI of over 20%. If I bet that area I SHOULD win over the long run.
Sometimes they were dogs and sometimes they were big favorites but they were winning enough to cover losses - HOWEVER the big favorites were winning a LOT but they would win so little they could not make up for the losses.
I had a sheet for the opposite side - what about betting the underdogs. Didn't work. There really was no time betting a dog would make you money.
BUT here is the key - quantity is better than quality. Betting a large number of games is better than being a sniper.
As you can see by doing things this way there was an edge to betting close games while betting the big favs was a poor idea - win a little and lose a lot
So then there is hockey where the real money is being made
NHL system special edition - from an unpublished blog
So while I was up in units my big issue was I felt I was flying blind in the NHL - picking games is one thing but since in the NHL every wager is not even close to being equal. Picking a team to win is fine unless that team is a -250 to win and if you bet 1 unit you win 0.42 back. You need to REALLY win a number of times to make up for how devastating losses can be.
And when looking at the puckline you are betting a team will win or lose by more or less than 1. Those lines can be in the -250 and +250 range.
Since I have every pick for every game I knew my ACTUAL win rate for winning games but only for games I decided was a good one - not ALL games. THUS - my 2 new spreadsheets
What I found was rather fascinating when I put ROI into account (Return on Investment).
I did the same in the NHL as I did in the NBA I sorted all of the games where I thought a team would win 51% up to 70% of the time and then looked at the results factoring in the actual moneyline.
In the below graph this is just picking if a team would win. Numbers from 1 to 8 are when my analysis said a team had a <60% chance of winning. Not great in the NHL.
But looking at the graph starting at 9, that hump is 60% to about 68% of the predicted winning percentage (for instance Team A should win 63% of the time) So for every game that was predicted to win 63%, what was the ACTUAL result money wise and not the actual winning % which is actually meaningless.
As you can see teams that are predicted win 75% (18 to 20 on the graph) yea - they win but not enough to off set the losses.
Is this making ANY sense?
I completed this just after balderdash and Mr. Electric got back from LV. I started to put this into practice about 12 days ago with some outstanding results. Check out the last 3 days of my personal chicken scratch notebook
NBA on the left - NHL Moneyline in the middle and NHL pucklike ( a "-" means they must win by more than 1 "+" means don't lose by more then 1 ) on the right with how many units I SHOULD win If I win (top left TOR - I SHOULD win 0.29 units with a victory with a 1.00 bet) >Most people would never take that bet - why bet so much to win so little YET - that area has a 25% ROI. Quantity over quality.
The last 3 days
I think I'm 23-3 for 17.83 units. HOLY CRAP!!
One thing to notice that Elweed HATES - so many wagers - last night we called it sphincter night - SO many dogs on the pucklike - so so many picks. But the more the merrier( is that the right word?). It evens off the fluctiontation.
SO - we shall see how this goes - OBVIOUSLY I'm a little pumped - I could not sleep last night with some late games I had to wake up for to see who won. Could I go 13-0 in one night with 6 dogs? NO Las Vegas Golden Knights let me down.
Eight games tonight (average is about 7) The last 11 days even with Covid wreaking havoc in oth sports has been pretty fun.
Cheers crossing fingers
