Packers and the regression to the mean

There is a saying I have heard about the NFL, it goes something like this. Its very hard to beat an NFL team 3 times in one year.

Not sure how true this is but on Pro Football Reference there is an article that looked at all teams that have played in the playoffs that also played each other in the regular season.  They looked at all of these situations going back to 1970 and found that when a team is blown out in the regular season it is MUCH harder for the winning team to win in playoffs.

"An interesting implication of this formula is that the more you cumulatively beat your opponent by in the regular season, the lower your chance is of beating them in the playoff rematch."

This actually makes sense. It's not unlike looking at this at a micro level of a game.  In the first half if you are crushing your opponent do you change strategy?  Probably not.  The losing team DOES change because they have learned from their mistakes and hopefully fixed issues.

Looking at the 49ers and Packers, why would San Fran change their strategy while the Packers gained MUCH more information on what the 49ers did to beat them. 

"a team that was blown out in the regular season gains more information for the rematch than the team that dominated".

Plus the ol' "regression to the mean"

Both teams are healthy and the Packers won't go to San Francisco as cocky as last time.  The line is +7.5 -115 so taking out Home field advantage the line makes believe the Packers are ABOUT 4.5 points worse the the 49ers.

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Rise of Skywalker crossed the 1 billion dollar mark but in China it made 12 million opening weekend, compared to 52 million on The Force Awakens.  A Dog's Way Home did better then The Rise of Skywalker.

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I watched The Aeronauts on PRIME and it was REALLY good.  It's a story taken from true events but is NOT a documentary  . . . it's a movie about balloonists and the first meteorologists combining to take readings of the atmosphere and along the way break some records.

38,000 feet in a balloon with no O2 or warm clothing but WOW - I had some serious shrinkage  on some of those scenes. BRAVO on the beautiful cinematography.


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100 years ago today prohibition began. Thank you evangelical Protestantism. Basically all it did was promote the rise of crime and bootlegging and made criminals millionaires and the cost of law enforcement dramatically increased.  It was a lose lose bill.

WEATHER - looking at 5 inches Friday, dang cold next week and more snow storms NEXT weekend

carry on