In the Packer game there are 2 minutes and 39 seconds left in the game. Cleveland has the ball on their 37 yard line and it's 3rd and 4 and they are up by 7. At that moment, Cleveland has a 96% chance to win their first game of the year.
Not gonna happen!
Davante Adams becomes the 4th player in NFL history to score the game tying TD to go into overtime and the game winning TD in overtime. The last time a player did this?
Last year in the Superbowl, James White.
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FUN FACT - in the first 13 weeks of the NFL. When a team has 3rd and 10+ and the QB throws a pass LONGER then 10 yards, that pass is converted into a first down 42% of the time.
In that same scenario, 3rd and 10 and the QB throws a pass shorter then 10 yards, it is converted into a first down 12% of the time. DON'T DO THAT!
FUN FACT - NEVER PUNT - well, not literally never.
Look at the actual statistics.
You have the ball on your 5 yard line - you go for it and miss. The other team gets the ball on the 5 and will score 96% of the time. IF YOU PUNT - the other team gets the ball on the 40 yard line and will score 77% of the time. A 15% difference - however, that is if you did not get your 1st down. Punting you have ZERO chance of scoring but if you go for it you have basically a 50% chance of making that 1st down. Of course if it's 4th and 40 that 50% chance goes downhill but you get the idea.
Bear with me a second - In the awesome Netflix series "Halt and Catch Fire" about the creation of the first laptop by the competitors of IBM. the line "Nobody ever got fired for buying an IBM" is spoken when they are arguing why people are not buying THEIR computer.
Same with major sports coaches and managers. Nobody ever got fired for NOT punting, or nobody ever got fired for NOT bunting (weird, same word, different first letter).
NFL and MLB strategy is generations behind where the game is now. BUT - managers and coaches are so afraid of being different there’s no development, no evolution of the game.
Look at the issues in baseball where you now have shifts. I literally heard MLB announcers state that shifts should be illegal because it hurts the game. They said sabrmetrics and analytics should not be part of baseball. Science and baseball should not intermingle.
WHAT? Seriously? are they from Alabama?
Another strategy that statistically is awesome. You should ALWAYS onside kick. ALWAYS (unless you are the NE Patriots). There have been high schools and one collage team that onside kicked 100% of the time and never ever punted. They had great success.
I'm not sold on the onside kick thing as the numbers do not seem to add up. Maybe it's difference in NCAAF. However - the average kickoff in the NFL ends up at the 21 yard line (Packers 22.9). The average onside kick ends up at the 47 yard line, however you get the ball back 20% of the time.
SO - 20% of the time you get the ball on your opponents 47 yard line with a great chance of scoring and 80% of the time you lose 26 yards but your opponents have only a 6% greater chance of scoring with those extra yards.
Worth the risk?
*A lot of these numbers came from advancedfootballanalytics.com
OH OH - Speaking of onside kicks. Did you see The Patriots onside kick last night? WORST EVER (well, besides the Packers) I guess they never tried one before.
https://youtu.be/8eWp-MGA0cw
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The next liberal dude review from my political professor buddy.
Mahlon Mitchell – Labor leader Milwaukee Firefighters. He was the losing VP nominee in the recall election and performed satisfactorily. Unlike Lt.G. Rebecca Kleefisch, who believes gay men want to marry clocks and tables.
If he can excite (Mitchell is black) Milwaukee blacks to vote it would be important. The falloff of black Democrats in Milwaukee is in large part why Trump carried the state and why Walker has held steady since winning the Governor Chair. How much of the fall out was opting out versus obstructed by the Voter ID Law out? Worth keeping an eye on Mitchell, I voted for him in the past as well he is acceptable at the moment.
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The Crown. I've always been sort of a Monarchy enthusiast so watching The Crown is a must. There is another show on Netflix that covers The House of Windsor and WHO KNEW ! their was not one drop of English blood in The House of Windsor when they changed their name from Gotha.
They were 100% German and changed their name to Windsor (the name of the castle they lived in) when the Germans bombed London in WWI.
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You know, if Roy Moore wins today it hurts Republicans because this child thing will not go away. In Wisconsin a House Rep has submitted new rules that up the age of Pages and Interns so Moore will not have access to children.
Our Government protecting children from our government.
Speaking of that vote. Most polls show Moore leading by 1 to 5 points . . .EXCEPT the Fox News poll which has Jones leading by 10 points. It's almost like that make things up.
Trump ratings? 2nd lowest ever as of this morning taking 100 polls and averaging them. August 25 and 26 his approval rating dropped to 36.8%. This morning he is at 37.0%. ODDLY Fox News has not run a Presidential poll since early October.
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France is creating a 30 gigawatt solar farm that will cost 25 billion euro and create tens of thousands of jobs. Meanwhile in the US we canceling all of the incentives for solar and wind farms so that 3 or 400 coal miners can head back underground to save America. LITERALLY sticking our heads into the sand to Make America Great Again.
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Ever watch Ryan ToysReview on Youtube? He's a 6 year old that opens packages, plays with the toys and then reviews that toy. From June 2016 to June 2017 he made $11 million from Youtube - America is already great. Well, until Net Neutrality happens.
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WEATHER
A small "warming" trend is in our future. but these little clippers keep coming.
What is happening is that the jet stream west of Seattle keeps diving south and small little eddies keep breaking off and spinning their way towards Wisconsin. Another one will hit us tomorrow with another 1-2 inches of snow.
I'm not as optimistic as the talking heads on TV about this weekend and believe it will be colder then they are telling us but we should be in the upper 20s and upper 30s by Monday
