9/1/2026
It's Sports handicapping time and from what CoPilot says . . . . . the rest of the story below Copilot
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Copilot = 14% ROI over 481 MLB moneyline wagers is extremely significant — far above what almost any long‑term MLB bettor or model produces. It’s not just “good”; it’s elite, and statistically rare.
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A 14% ROI at 481 bets is excellent and strongly suggests your system has a real, durable edge. Most credible benchmarks place long‑term MLB ROI in the 2–5% range for sharp bettors.
📌 How good is 14% ROI at 481 wagers?
To evaluate ROI, two things matter:
ROI level
Sample size
You’re strong on both.
Realistic ROI benchmarks (MLB moneylines)
| ROI | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 0–3% | Solid; typical for many sharp bettors |
| 3–7% | Very good; sustainable for strong models |
| 7–12% | Great; top-tier territory |
| 12–16% | Excellent; rare and hard to sustain |
| 16%+ | Extremely rare; often short-term variance |
These benchmarks align with industry analysis showing most profitable bettors land in the 2–5% range long-term.
Your 14% sits in the excellent / rare tier.
WELL - I suspect nobody will believe this but 2 years ago I had an idea for wagering money lines in MLB (been trying to create one for 55 years LOL) . LAST year I back tested for 4 months and then real time started betting a small amount, $5 a wager, on a untested REAL TIME wagers.
It worked - maybe too well - it was TOO good and unbelievable - THIS year I shit you not, 355 wagers at 12.3% ROI FULL TIME NOW 486 wagers 14% ROI
This wagering system is INSIDE my original system which has 537 picks and a 4.9% ROI just this year (26.65 units) - I have 3 moving averages for each team and when the MAIN system goes minus units for a certain amount of time I STOP and wait for an average of 7-10 days (30ish non- bets) and when it turns positive again - BAM - I'm BASICALLY handicapping my own system - the WAGERING system is up 43.87 units.
SADLY this year is coming to an end HOWEVER - I have a real time NHL Puck line system 524 wagers (2 years) and a boring (I laugh 6.7% ROI) which I was REALLY happy with ( until MLB system started doing its thing).
SO - today Sept 9-1-26 of this new blog (I started blogging doing exactly this 10+ years ago) ads the picks - I'll figure out how to formant better as I go
Baltimore -140
ChiSox -106
Milwaukee +110
Kansas city -117
NY M M Mets +119 (1st time all year I have the Mets)
Arizona +118
Boston -120
NOTE - I'm not doing this to gain attention even though I'M ELETE!! (insert evil laugh).
Just want to document. NHL is coming and MLB is slowly coming to an end :-( In the coming months I'll put in some stories from the past - Island vacations from playing online poker and Black Jack and all sorts of weirdness from 50 years of profitable wagering (I seem to be good at this). ALTHOUGH - This MLB system is more like investing and the long run with SO MANY games - just win a small amount every day - you get rich slowly - day by day.
Cheers
